Trade shows circling the drain?

First Apple announced that it’s pulling out of Macworld Expo, then Novell said that it’s cancelled the 2009 BrainShare. If these things happen in threes, I’m wondering what’s next to go south? JavaOne? OracleWorld?

The events business is going to take a real beating over the next couple of years. Even industries that are relatively healthy can expect to see attendance at junkets drop off as businesses reel in their spending. January’s Detroit auto show is already looking to be a disaster, with many automakers declining to exhibit altogether, and the specter of bankruptcy hanging over GM, and possibly Chrysler.

I love trade shows, and I loathe them, and I’ll dodge them altogether if I can. But they serve at least one useful purpose -- putting large numbers of people face-to-face. Where else can you get two or three months of briefings in as many days?

Individual shows are in trouble, there’s no doubt of that. But the idea will survive this economy, and that a good thing for SF. As much as I hate tourists cluttering the sidewalk, they’re what keep The City afloat.

Macworld Expo used to be Apple’s winter announcement platform, but the company says that its retail stores are a more effective means of reaching the public. From a platform perspective, that certainly the case.

Macworld Expo was once necessary for hardware vendors because the platform was so idiosyncratic. These days, when Macs are designed around Intel processors and USB instead of Motorola chips and SCSI, it’s no longer mandatory. The last couple of years, I’ve only gone onto the floor to look at accessories.

BrainShare has its own baggage. Although I used to love the prospect of a ski trip on either side of the show -- whatever else I say about Salt Lake, it’s the best metropolis for a skier in North America -- I stopped enjoying that trip a few years ago, as the planes got smaller, and the press corps stopped showing up. On top of that, the organizers liked to schedule the show around St. Patrick’s Day -- although there are plenty of Irish in SLC, it’s still kind of like being at Disneyland, when I’m more used to Rush Street.

But this isn’t good for the Utah tourist business, and it’s another sign that Novell’s heart no longer lies in Zion. BrainScare was the second-biggest show at the Salt Lake convention complex, behind the LDS Church’s summer shindig.

Trade shows as a business aren’t going away for good. But many events -- e.g. those produced by a couple of my former employers -- won’t last the year. Niche gatherings such as NAB, which appeal to people who spend a lot of money at a time are likely to survive. But events aimed at people who don’t spend that much per capita -- I’m looking at you, Eclipse fans -- are doomed.

Thoughts on Blago, and Chicago politics in general

Before moving to SF in 1987, I lived in Chicagoland for six years, mostly in Evanston, with a few months in Chicago itself. I was the first member of my family to test the waters of the Windy City; since then, one cousin has raised a family in the western ’burbs, and my youngest sister is the only one of my siblings who’s never lived in the area. It was a fun time for local politics, because I had a chance to watch a great political drama: the rise of Harold Washington and the years of Council Wars.

My crony W., knowing I keep up on things back there, asked me yesterday at Job Club if the Blagojevich scandal came as a shock, and I didn’t even blink. Personally, I stopped being surprised during George Ryan’s turn in the tank, when (at the risk of a gross oversimplification) driver’s licenses were for sale. People who have never lived in the Midwest really don’t have any idea how corrupt and vicious Illinois politics are, Chicago’s in particular.

In many ways, this is might be seen as history’s payback to Blago’s family -- his father-in-law, Richard Mell, gave him his first exposure in politics, and was one of Darth Vrdolyak’s 29 aldermen who held the city hostage for four years. Mell was one of the first to change his loyalty to the mayor, after the 1986 elections, so he’s clearly an opportunist of the first rank. But Blago appears to have raised the bar to whole new level.

Of course, there will never be another Bathhouse John Coughlin or another Hinky-Dink Kenna.

(Ward-level politics haven’t changed a bit in twenty years, it seems. I’m addicted to a blog that’s tracking corruption and crime in the 49th Ward, which is best described as the Rogers Park neighborhood, which abuts Evanston, and where I lived for the fall of my senior year. MorseHellhole centers on the street where I lived, about a block from the L stop. If anything, it seems as if the neighborhood has actually gone downhill since ’84.)

Although it might not be the most corrupt state of our time (the NY Times points to Kentucky, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and others as contenders) there’s no question that one has to have a strong moral compass to navigate the swamp of Chicago politics without running aground.

Rebooting life, please wait

Well, here I am again with time on my hands. Let's see if I can keep my fingers and wits nimble through another winter.